Net-Zero by 2050: Ambition at Risk as Fossil Fuels Dig In

Despite climate summits and ESG pledges, fossil fuels are proving more resilient than many expected—and our net-zero goals may be slipping out of reach.

The year is 2025, and the global ambition to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is under increasing strain. According to DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook, not only are global energy-related CO₂ emissions still stubbornly high, but fossil fuels are projected to make up more than half of the global energy mix by mid-century.

This isn’t due to a lack of political declarations. If anything, the air is thick with promises. From COP meetings to corporate ESG campaigns, climate action has never had more airtime. Yet the gap between rhetoric and reality is growing—and it’s being driven not by ideology, but by engineering limits and economic constraints.

The Growth of Renewables: Impressive, But Not Enough

There’s no question that renewables are gaining ground. Solar and wind accounted for around 12% of global electricity generation in 2023, with projections of 35–40% by 2050. Encouraging, yes—but far short of what’s needed.

To hit net-zero by 2050, the deployment of renewables would need to grow fivefold. This pace is hampered by a web of challenges: strained global supply chains, bottlenecks in the availability of critical minerals like lithium and cobalt, and slow permitting processes in many Western democracies.

Even more concerning is the geopolitical context. China controls approximately 70% of the rare earth supply, and many key materials are sourced from politically unstable regions. These dependencies pose a strategic risk that cannot be ignored.

Fossil Fuels: Down, But Not Out

Far from fading quietly into history, fossil fuels continue to power the modern world. Oil, gas, and coal still supply roughly 80% of primary global energy consumption. By 2050, even with ambitious clean energy rollouts, they’re expected to remain above 50%.

Why? The answer lies in physics and infrastructure. Heavy industry, long-haul transport, shipping, aviation—these sectors are notoriously hard to electrify. Steel doesn’t smelt itself, and container ships won’t run on solar panels anytime soon.

Fossil fuels, for all their environmental cost, remain energy-dense, transportable, and compatible with the infrastructure we’ve spent a century building. The transition is coming, but it won’t be instant—and it won’t be painless.

Political Vision vs. Technical Reality

Governments continue to push ambitious targets—“carbon neutrality by 2050” now echoes from parliaments and press releases worldwide. But the real-world implementation often falls short.

Carbon pricing mechanisms, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism or the proposed U.S. carbon import tax, may be well-intentioned. Yet they risk driving up inflation and deepening global inequality unless paired with strong support mechanisms for vulnerable economies.

According to the Global Risks Report 2025, over half of surveyed experts believe we’re entering a period of heightened global instability. In such a context, technical feasibility must trump political fashion if we’re to navigate the energy transition without widening global divides.

The Global South Can’t Be Left Behind

One of the greatest injustices in the net-zero debate is its blind spot for the developing world. More than 3 billion people still rely on biomass or coal to cook and heat their homes. For many of them, energy security is not a question of renewables versus fossil fuels—it’s a question of access, full stop.

Imposing blanket green mandates without offering viable alternatives risks turning climate ambition into climate colonialism. The transition must be just as well as green.

From Ideology to Engineering

The goal of net-zero by 2050 remains vital—but it is in jeopardy. Not because we lack motivation, but because we have yet to fully confront the scale and complexity of the challenge.

To deliver real progress, we must focus on scalable technology, realistic investment, and practical roadmaps—not just soundbites. That means embracing a hybrid future: accelerating renewables, yes, but also investing in decarbonised fossil fuel technologies, advanced nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture.

A net-zero future is still achievable—but only if we replace ideological purity with engineering honesty.

Conclusion: A Call for Pragmatism

Fossil fuels are not dead—they’re adapting. And unless the world dramatically changes course on deployment speed, investment scale, and geopolitical cooperation, they will remain a core part of the global energy system in 2050.

Net-zero should remain our north star. But the path to it must be walked with open eyes, realistic tools, and a deep respect for the complexity of global energy systems. This isn’t about choosing between green and grey—it’s about building a bridge from today’s reality to tomorrow’s ambition.